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Oliver Quinn
Crime & Mystery
The best detective mistakes are rarely stupidity. They’re usually a decent theory built on bad weather, partial evidence and one detail that looked a bit too neat to ignore.

That’s the fun part, really. A character can be smart, observant and still walk straight into the wrong explanation because the wrong explanation is almost right.

In crime fiction, incompetence is easy. A believable misread is much more interesting. It lets the detective earn the correction instead of just stumbling into it. And if the evidence only makes sense in hindsight, well, that’s half the genre’s little cruelty.
George Shaw
The danger is when the detective’s wrong turn is treated as a personality flaw instead of a consequence of the case. A clever character can still be trapped by their own habits of reading the world. In historical fiction especially, the available evidence is often thin, biased, and half ruined by time. That does most of the work for you.